Brazilian Soybean Harvest Off to Slow Start

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:24 AM

According to AgRural, just 1.5% of the Brazilian soybean crop has been harvested, compared to 3.5% last year and the five-year average of 2%. South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier says Mato Grosso and Parana are the location where some crops are ready for harvest, but wet weather has slowed progress.

"There are also reports of poor seed quality and even some soybeans sprouting in the pods in the wettest areas," says Cordonnier. "The weather last week was somewhat drier in Mato Grosso and Parana, so the situation is improving."

Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean crop peg unchanged at 97.0 MMT and has a neutral bias going forward. He adds, "The weather in Brazil is uneven and the later-planted soybeans will need additional rainfall through March. Meteorologists in Brazil are forecasting continuing wet weather in central and northeastern Brazil through the first week of February before a drying trend returns."

Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16 Soybean Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2014-15

in million metric tons

Brazil
97.0
100.0
92.0
96.2
Argentina
59.0
60.0
57.0
60.8
Paraguay
8.8
9.3
8.3
8.4
Bolivia
3.0
3.3
2.7
2.6
Uruguay
3.5
3.8
3.2
3.5
Total
171.3
176.4
164.2
171.5
Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16
Corn Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2014-15

in million metric tons

Brazil
81.2
84.0
78.0
85.4
Argentina
23.6
26.0
22.0
25.5
Paraguay
3.1
3.4
2.7
3.0
Bolivia
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.7
Uruguay
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.5
Total
109.1
114.8
103.7
115.1


Cordonnier also left his Brazilian corn crop peg unchanged at 81.2 MMT, but he has a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward due to the possibility of a larger safrinha crop due to high prices. "Corn prices in Brazil are very good and if the weather during February cooperates -- which is still a big question-- there will be an incentive to plant safrinha corn," he says. "The safrinha corn acreage could equal that of last year, but the corn yields will be in doubt until we see when the rainy season will end in central Brazil."

Regarding Argentine crops, Cordonnier said he has a neutral bias going forward. "The condition of the (soybean) crop is good, but I am a little concerned about the recent hotter and drier weather," he says.


 

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