Brazil Soybean Fortunes Improving on Heavy Rainfall
The flood gates have opened in the tropics in January sharply improving soybean prospects.
Exceptionally heavy rainfall has developed this month with a re-energized monsoon in the Brazil tropics. Rainfall in the past 2 weeks has been extremely heavy. All of the tropical soybean states have received soaking rains Mato Grosso, Goias, Bahia and Para.
Further south, northern parts of Parana north Mato Grosso do Sul and Minas Gerais also received very heavy rainfall. Rio Grande do Sul was the only state that was dry these past 2 weeks.
Why suddenly so wet?
A weakening El Nino may be responsible. Sea surface temperatures have chilled recently, down X degrees C from a peak 3 weeks ago. The El Nino is in decline, opening the door for strong showers in the tropics.
The response has been very dramatic. Very heavy rain in January contrasts with a super-dry December in tropical Brazil. Mato Grosso recorded a rainfall deficit of 200-300 millimeters (8-12 inches). This is Brazil's leading soybean state.
The Mato Grosso rainfall has sharply increased in recent weeks. This may be verified on the rainfall times series plot, attached to this message, showing the cumulative rainfall versus normal in the past 30 days. The strong showers recently have been so heavy that drought has been virtually resolved both in the Center West and Center East.
It is always stunning to learn how much rainfall is required in the tropics to successfully grow soybeans. A very wet climate is necessary in order to offset the high evaporation in the heat. Temperatures reach or exceed 90 F each and every day during the summer growing season.
As tropical rains have increased, the rainfall in South Brazil has tapered off the past 2 weeks. Parana weather conditions have varied continuing wet in the north, but much drier in southern areas where most of the state's soybeans are grown . Rio Grande do Sul has become very dry with hardly any rainfall at all the past 2 weeks.
The forecast is very dry for the week ahead, except in the Northeast tropics where heavy rain would continue.