Farm Fuels in Focus: Farm Diesel Firms Ahead of December Swoon

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:25 AM

 

  • December 2016 natural gas opened today at $3.08 -- down 26 cents from our last Fuels in Focus.
  • Farm Diesel is up a penny on the week at an average of $1.91 per gallon.
  • December 2016 WTI crude oil opened the day at $49.61 -- down 97 cents from our last report.
  • November 2016 Heating oil futures opened the day at $1.56 -- down 2 cents from our last report.
  • Propane is unchanged on the week at an average of $1.02 per gallon regionally.

InputsMonitor.com"Farm Diesel -- This week, farm diesel price strength was led by an 11 cent hike in Minnesota and a 9 cent higher price tag per gallon in Kansas. Gains in other states were less than a nickel per gallon. Seven of the twelve states in our survey were unchanged as Indiana led declines, falling 3 cents.

Our expectation for a post-harvest price swoon is supported by the very mild increases noted through the past 5 weeks and a warmer than expected start to the northeastern home heating season. That runs counter to bullish sentiments in the crude oil market, but, as many have expected, higher crude futures prices have brought stalled U.S. drilling units back online which will support higher stockpiles and may add price pressure in the coming weeks.

  • Distillate inventories reported by EIA fell 3.4 million barrels to 152.4 mmbbl. Stocks are currently 10.3 mmbbl above the same time last year.
  • The regionwide low currently lies at $1.49 in Illinois and the Midwest high is at $2.06 in Minnesota.
Farm Diesel 10/28/16
Three Weeks Ago
Previous Week
Change
Current Week
 
Iowa
$1.86
$1.92
1 cent
$1.93
Iowa
Illinois
$1.69
$1.45
4 cents
$1.49
Illinois
Indiana
$2.02
$2.03
-3 cents
$2.00
Indiana
Wisconsin
$1.92
$1.92
Unchanged
$1.92
Wisconsin
Minnesota
$1.92
$1.95
11 cents
$2.06
Minnesota
South Dakota
$1.82
$1.99
Unchanged
$1.99
South Dakota
North Dakota
$1.99
$1.99
Unchanged
$1.99
North Dakota
Nebraska
$1.81
$1.88
Unchanged
$1.88
Nebraska
Missouri
$1.74
$1.91
Unchanged
$1.91
Missouri
Kansas
$1.86
$1.90
5 cents
$1.95
Kansas
Ohio
$1.83
$1.92
Unchanged
$1.92
Ohio
Michigan
$1.93
$1.93
Unchanged
$1.93
Michigan
Midwest Average
$1.87
$1.90
1 cent
$1.91
Midwest Average

InputsMonitor.com

Propane -- Kansas led gains firming 9 cents per gallon as Minnesota added 3 cents. Seven of our twelve states were unchanged as declines were fueled by North Dakota, down 13 cents and Indiana down 4 cents per gallon.

No change to our propane price forecast. If forecasts for a cold, snowy winter are realized, propane demand will outstrip last year's which will leave some needing late season deliveries. Make sure you have at least as much propane on hand as you used last year and consider adding another 5-10% to ensure you don't run out when demand is at its peak later this winter.

  • According to EIA, last week, national propane inventories fell 2.115 million barrels -- now 0.996 million barrels below the same time last year at 100.567 million barrels.
  • The regionwide low is at $0.80 per gallon in North Dakota and the regionwide high is in Illinois $1.15.
LP 10/28/16
Three Weeks Ago
Previous Week
Change
Current Week
 
Iowa
$0.92
$0.94
Unchanged
$0.94
Iowa
Illinois
$1.16
$1.16
-1 cent
$1.15
Illinois
Indiana
$1.16
$1.16
-4 cents
$1.12
Indiana
Wisconsin
$0.99
$0.99
Unchanged
$0.99
Wisconsin
Minnesota
$0.96
$0.97
3 cents
$1.00
Minnesota
South Dakota
$0.95
$0.95
Unchanged
$0.95
South Dakota
North Dakota
$0.93
$0.93
-13 cents
$0.80
North Dakota
Nebraska
$0.90
$0.92
Unchanged
$0.92
Nebraska
Missouri
$1.00
$1.07
Unchanged
$1.07
Missouri
Kansas
$0.98
$0.98
5 cents
$1.07
Kansas
Ohio
$1.20
$1.10
Unchanged
$1.10
Ohio
Michigan
$1.07
$1.08
Unchanged
$1.08
Michigan
Midwest Average
$1.02
$1.02
Unchanged
$1.02
Midwest Average

 

InputsMonitor.com


 

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