P&KToday: World Demand Prospects Improve

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:12 AM


DAP, MAP and potash are all lower on the week.

  • DAP $105.63 below year-ago pricing -- lower $4.77/st on the week to $448.77/st.
  • MAP $118.53 below year-ago -- lower $7.79/st this week to $456.91/st.
  • Potash $138.60 below year-ago -- lower $4.69/st this week to $309.24/st.
  • The average cash corn price figured in to P&K this week is $3.10 1/2 per bushel.

The national average corn basis softened 3/4 cent from last week to 20 3/4 cents below December futures. The national average cash corn price firmed 6 cents from last week to $3.18 1/4. Basis is softer than the three-year average, which is 3 1/2 cents above futures for this week.

PhosphateDAP was softer on the week with declines led by a $22.00 falloff in Indiana. Wisconsin fell $14.90, Minnesota fell $10.00 per short ton and Iowa is down $8.78. Three states were unchanged as Nebraska firmed $3.16 to lead gains. Ohio was our only other state to post a higher price, up 2 cents on the week.

MAP was our downside leader in the P&K segment, falling $7.79. Wisconsin alone is unchanged on the week with Illinois down $44.50, Minnesota is down $24.50 as Indiana fell $10.90. Other decliners were less than $5.00 per short ton lower. Nebraska led gains, firming $5.34 as Ohio and Kansas each firmed about a buck.

PotashPotash continued lower as well with only Kansas unchanged. Minnesota fell $22.50, Wisconsin potash fell $12.70 as Indiana and Iowa each dropped roughly ten bucks. Nebraska led gains firming $9.95 and North Dakota added $1.55 per short ton.

Perspective -- Demand for phosphate in India is on the rise as seasonal monsoons have been favorable for crop plantings. Producers also see mild demand increases in Brazil and in the United States based on supply builds ahead of spring. The trouble is, most of the phosphate production capacity in the world is dominated by just a few countries which will limit downside potential to a degree. But production is ramping up in Morocco and other offshore locales which should help keep a lid on phosphate through the winter months. I found an interesting article on investorintel.com that outlines some of the market factors on the horizon for phosphate. The post suggests that a supply scare could, however, force DAP, MAP and other phosphates higher in a hurry, but for now, the near-term forecast remains the same with prices expected to follow their annual seasonal price path lower through the winter.

Little change on the potash side and burdensome world supplies will keep potash prices in check for the foreseeable future.

By the Pound --

The following is an updated table of P&K pricing by the pound as reported to your Inputs Monitor for the week ended September 16, 2016.

DAP is priced at 46 3/4 cents/lbP2O5; MAP at 42 1/2 cents/lbP2O5; Potash is at 25 3/4 cents/lbK2O.

P&K pricing by the pound -- 9/21/2016

DAP $P/lb

MAP $P/lb
Potash $K/lb
$0.46 3/4
$0.42 1/2
$0.25 3/4
$0.58 1/2
$0.54 1/2
$0.37 3/4




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