P&KToday: World Demand a Growing Concern

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:12 AM


DAP, MAP and potash were all higher again on the week.

  • DAP $38.59 below year-ago pricing -- higher 63 cents/st on the week to $446.73/st.
  • MAP $45.63 below year-ago -- higher $2.80/st this week to $449.88/st.
  • Potash $42.43 below year-ago -- higher $1.61/st this week to $327.20/st.

inputsmonitor.comMap led gains in the P&K segment. No state posts a lower MAP price on the week as gains were led by Nebraska which added $13.25 and Illinois firming $9.76. Six of the twelve states we survey are unchanged.

Potash gained $1.61 regionally led by strength in Wisconsin amounting to $12.84 and Nebraska firming $2.15. Only Minnesota potash softened, falling just 26 cents per short ton. Five states were unchanged.

DAP firmed just slightly this week led by Wisconsin which firmed $4.01 and Michigan gained $3.76. Seven states were unchanged as Minnesota fell $1.54 to comprise the only lower price in our
DAP survey.

inputsmonitor.comForecasts for declines in Indian demand are becoming a concern for North American producers, which could begin to look like an opportunity for Chinese importers. Last year, China waited until summertime to settle contract agreements with potash exporters and if Indian demand pressures prices and China, once again waits out the market, potash price pressure on the world market could spiral lower.

North American supply rebalancing efforts will keep prices from falling to the low of $300 per short ton regionally we observed in November 2016, but a demand-led price pullback is not out of the question. Since U.S. preplant fieldwork is beginning in southern areas, producers will make the most of the seasonal demand. Any potash price softness would likely come only after preplant demand is exhausted, so while we believe prices will find near-term seasonal support, there is a real possibility for price pressure through the summer months.

For now, we are 100% filled on spring potash and 50% filled on spring phosphate.

By the Pound -- The following is an updated table of P&K pricing by the pound as reported to your Inputs Monitor for the week ended February 24, 2017.

DAP is priced at 46 1/2 cents/lbP2O5; MAP at 42 cents/lbP2O5; Potash is at 27 3/4 cents/lbK2O.

P&K pricing by the pound -- 3/2/2017

DAP $P/lb

MAP $P/lb
Potash $K/lb
$0.46 1/2
$0.27 3/4
$0.50 1/2
$0.46 1/2





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