P&KToday: Appetite for P&K Price Risk Runs Out

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:12 AM


DAP, MAP and potash were all higher on the week.

  • DAP $57.68 below year-ago pricing -- higher $2.80/st on the week to $441.90/st.
  • MAP $75.65 below year-ago -- higher 48 cents/st this week to $440.74/st.
  • Potash $64.09 below year-ago -- higher 36 cents/st this week to $316.94/st.

The national average corn basis firmed 1 cent from last week to 2 1/4 cents below March futures. The national average cash corn price firmed 2 3/4 cents from last week to $3.66. Basis is just slightly softer than the three-year average, which is even with futures for this week.

inputsmonitor.comDAP was our upside leader in the P&K segment this week. Eight of the twelve states we survey were unchanged and no state posted a lower price. Minnesota led to the upside adding an aggressive $22.68 as Indiana added $4.71, Illinois firmed $3.49 and Michigan gained $2.77.

MAP favored a more mixed tone. Indiana gained $5.06 as Ohio firmed $3.70. Minnesota led declines falling $3.19 as North Dakota softened $1.39 and South Dakota dipped 3 cents per short ton. Five states were unchanged as Indiana firmed $5.06 and Ohio gained $3.70.

Potash firmed slightly on the week led by gains in Illinois to the tune of $4.59 and Indiana up $4.23. Four states were unchanged as declines were led by Ohio, down $4.50, North Dakota fell $1.07 and Iowa softened 29 cents.

inputsmonitor.comWe added to our P&K coverage for spring applications this week. Potash appears to be stabilizing at current levels but producers have been clear that they intend to support prices with supply-side management. In an effort to capture the best value, and in consideration of the sharp discount potash holds to expected new-crop revenue, our appetite for risk has been exhausted, and we advised growers go ahead and fill remaining needs for spring.

To revisit our potash/UAN28% spread analysis, our theory about that price action is playing out. UAN28% firmed back above potash on an indexed basis, but both are pointing to the upside. This is a chart patter that we will continue to follow and if the crossover is a confirmed technical indicator, we will have it in our back pocket the next time potash and 28% conspire to indicate a change of fertilizer price direction.

inputsmonitor.comPhosphate got the nod this week as well. It was a combination of sharply higher feedstock ammonia and building price strength in all fertilizers that brought us to market for 50% of expected phosphate needs for spring. We maintain that phosphate will track sideways with a bias to the upside between now and spring, but an overall fertilizer recovery -- like the one we are eyeing now -- has the potential to pull phosphates higher. We are, however quite certain the bottom has been placed in phosphate pricing, and the only way to go from here is up. To guard against that potential, we advised growers book 50% of expected phosphate needs.

Get current to 100% filled on spring potash needs and 50% covered on phosphate.

By the Pound -- The following is an updated table of P&K pricing by the pound as reported to your Inputs Monitor for the week ended January 27, 2016.

DAP is priced at 46 cents/lbP2O5; MAP at 41 cents/lbP2O5; Potash is at 26 1/2 cents/lbK2O.

P&K pricing by the pound -- 2/3/2017

DAP $P/lb

MAP $P/lb
Potash $K/lb
$0.26 1/2
$0.48 1/2
$0.37 1/4





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