Inputs Market Update: Nitrogen Firms as P&K Fall

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:12 AM

Gains tallied $14.06 to Declines' $4.71 in the regional averages.

NH3sPreadCover"Fertilizer prices are generally firmer with nitrogen leading to the upside and P&K lower. As expected, we are seeing just a mild price recovery overall in nitrogen, but in some locales we have gotten reports of NH3, UAN and urea in short supply, supporting sharp price increases in areas impacted. Wholesale phosphate bids and global potash supplies both suggest the potential for continued mild price softness, near-term, but if supplies run short at your local distributor, expect your local prices to firm quickly.

We have pulled the trigger on UAN and urea as wholesale markets and demand in the deep south have added support to prices. Click here to read more. We have also booked spring anhydrous. Click here to read more. If you have followed that advice, and booked spring/summer diesel, there is nothing for you to do on nutrient this week. We expect higher prices for nitrogen, phosphate and diesel between now and spring, and once demand kicks in for phosphate, the same should be true there.

PhosphteMy advice this week is to get in touch with your preferred retailer regarding their phosphate and potash supplies. If they indicate their supplies are thin, I would advise you go ahead and book phosphate for spring as thin supplies will lead to higher retail prices and may even delay applications if farmers are forced to wait in line for product.

Corn Futures -- December 2016 corn futures closed Friday, March 18 at $3.85 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $605.16 per acre -- lower $1.68/acre on the week. With anhydrous priced at $565.50 this week, the eNCR/NH3 spread narrowed 4.38 points and now stands at -39.66. This means one acre of expected new-crop corn revenue is priced at a $39.66 premium to one ton of anhydrous ammonia.

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Nutrient/Fuel
3/7/16
3/14/16
Week-over Change
Current Week
Nutrient/Fuel
Anhydrous
$562.71
$562.80
$2.71
$565.50
Anhydrous
DAP
$481.43
$484.63
-27 cents
$484.36
DAP
MAP
$499.01
$499.90
-$1.68
$498.22
MAP
Potash
$365.66
$365.90
-$2.76
$363.14
Potash
UAN28
$273.62
$273.35
$6.63
$279.98
UAN28
UAN32
$303.02
$303.60
$2.00
$305.60
UAN32
Urea
$363.77
$364.55
$2.70
$367.25
Urea
Farm Diesel
$1.47
$1.48
2 cents
$1.50
Farm Diesel
LP
$1.02
$1.02
Unchanged
$1.02
LP
Composite
584.66
585.72
2.69
588.41
Composite

 

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