What Traders are Talking About:
* Fund buying fails to surface. The hoped-for pickup in fund buying with the flip of the calendar failed to develop Monday. Instead, funds were moderate net sellers in corn and wheat, while they were small net buyers in soybeans. Strong gains in the dollar prevented funds from actively buying.
* ABARE issues 2010-11 outlook. At its annual Outlook Conference, the Australia Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics says it expects 2010-11 Australian wheat production to climb to 21.94 MMT from 21.656 MMT in 2009-10 as drought conditions in the country ease. ABARE sees 2010-11 world wheat output at 656 MMT compared to 668 MMT in 2009-10, while 2010-11 world wheat consumption is expected to rist to 650 MMT from 642 MMT in 2009-10.
* Euro dips, dollar strengthens overnight. The euro hit a 9 1/2 month low against the dollar overnight amid ongoing Greece debt concerns. The lates negative out of the country is a 24-hour planned strike on March 16 by Greece's largest public sector union in protest over the government's austerity measures. The stronger dollar put pressure on commodities, including grains overnight, but the greenback failed to make a new for-the-move high and backed well off its daily highs.
The Long and Short of It:
The dollar is the primary focal point for grain traders, but they are also watching weather and fund activity for price direction. Fresh fundamental news is limited, which puts greater focus on other market factors.
Market fundamentals are just strong enough to keep cattle and hog traders on teh buy side for now. But there's downside risk, especially for cattle futures, if the product and cash markets start to weaken.
Send comments or questions to: bgrete@profarmer.com.